Should I Stay or Should I Go? A Framework for Thinking Clearly

Most people who’ve been seriously thinking about moving to a lower-tax state have already had some version of this conversation with themselves — maybe late at night, or on a long drive, or after seeing a tax bill that felt like the final straw. They’ve run the numbers in their head and looked at Zillow listings in Austin or Scottsdale. They’ve told themselves they should probably talk to someone.

This piece is for that moment; however, it’s not a recommendation as the right answer is different for everyone. Consider this a framework for thinking it through.

Step one: the life question first

Before you model anything, answer this: What do you actually want your life to look like in ten years, and where does that life take place? These kinds of questions determine whether the financial case matters at all. The financial case only matters if you’d actually want to live where the answers are pointing.

For clients who are at or near retirement, this question is particularly worth considering. Retirement is one of the few moments in adult life when the practical anchors loosen simultaneously — the job, the school district, the professional relationships that keep you in a place. If you’ve been telling yourself for years that you’d reconsider where you live when you retire, and that moment is now close, the tax environment is a reasonable thing to consider.

Some questions worth asking before you proceed:

• What community, relationships, and infrastructure am I most attached to now? Is there a genuine equivalent elsewhere?
• What is the role of family proximity in the next chapter, and how does distance change it?
• Is the desire to leave primarily about the tax? Or is there something drawing you elsewhere, and the tax impacts are simply making the decision more urgent?

If you can answer those clearly and the answers point toward somewhere else, the financial case is worth building. If the picture is still vague, the financial case will pull you toward a decision you haven’t finished making — and it will feel like the decision made itself.

Step two: the financial threshold

This is where you build a thorough model. In my previous article, The Hidden Costs of Moving to a Low‑Tax State,  we covered what a complete model looks like. Here’s the short version: tax saving, full cost of the move, transition costs, and an honest breakeven timeline. For many clients, the break-even point can be longer than they initially think, particularly for those near a liquidity event.

Three questions to ask yourself :

• If you have a significant income-related transaction on the horizon, have you spoken to tax counsel specifically about domicile timing?
• Have you counted everything — savings and costs, over a realistic time horizon?
• Does the financial case still hold when you include the hidden costs of moving to a low-tax state?

Step three: the execution reality

A domicile change that doesn’t hold up to scrutiny can be worse than no domicile change at all. The three questions that matter most:

• Have you spoken to tax counsel (not just your CPA) about what a proper domicile change requires for your specific situation?
• Are you prepared to do this properly, not hastily?
• Do you have ongoing income or ties to your former state that complicate a clean break?

Step four: the warning signs

There are a few patterns we see in geography decisions that go wrong. This is not intended to discourage relocation, but to help clients recognize when they’re making a reactive decision rather than a thoughtful one.

• You’re making the decision in response to a news cycle. A headline is not a plan. The 2028 effective date in Washington means you have nearly two years. Use them.
• The financial case is compelling, but the life picture is vague. If you can’t describe clearly what you’d be moving toward, not just what you’d be leaving, the life question isn’t answered yet.
• You’re planning to maintain significant ties to your current state. This is not a domicile change. It is a legal and financial risk dressed up as one.
• You’ve modelled what you’re gaining. You haven’t modelled what you’re leaving. The financial benefits of relocation are easy to quantify. The costs — professional relationships, family proximity, lifestyle infrastructure, community ties — are harder to put in a spreadsheet but no less real.
• You’ve spoken to a colleague who moved to Nevada. You haven’t spoken to counsel. Your individual circumstances matter and should be the center of the conversation.

What a good process looks like

It starts with a conversation, not a spreadsheet. Your Brighton Jones team has helped clients work through this decision from every angle — the financial, the practical, and the deeply personal. The difference between decisions that go well and those that don’t almost always comes down to whether the client asked the life question first.

If the geography question is live for you — whether it’s urgent or simply ambient — reach out to your advisor. If you don’t have one, this is exactly the kind of conversation that makes the case for having one.

Series navigation

This is the third piece in The Geography of Wealth — a three-part series on what rising state tax burdens actually mean for your life, and how to think clearly about what to do next.

• Part 1: The Geography Decision Is a Life Question First
• Part 2: Should You Move to a Low-Tax State? The Hidden Costs
• Part 3: Should I Stay or Should I Go? A Framework for Thinking Clearly

About the Author: Melanie Arena, CFP®, is a Lead Advisor at Brighton Jones. She helps high-income professionals and families design tax-efficient investment strategies and retirement plans aligned with their principles and long-term goals.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or tax advice. Please consult with your Brighton Jones advisor and qualified legal counsel regarding your specific situation.